If the machine predicts that you will take both Boxes A and B, Box B will be empty. But if the machine predicts that you will take Box B only, then Box B will contain $1,000,000,000. The machine has already done it’s prediction and the contents of box B has already been set. Which box/boxes do you take?

To reiterate, you choices are:

-Box A and B

-Box B only

(“Box A only” is not an option because no one is that stupid lol)

Please explain your reasoning.

My answer is:

spoiler

I mean I’d choose Box B only, I’d just gamble on the machine being right. If the machine is wrong, I’ll break that thing.


This is based on Newcomb’s Paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb’s_paradox), but I increased the money to make it more interesting.

  • elavat0r@mander.xyz
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    1 year ago

    I’d much rather take a sure million with a (slight?) chance of a bonus billion, versus an unknown chance at 0 or a billion. I could do plenty with a million that would significantly change my life for the better.

    But I would probably do the opposite if A contained $1000 and B contained a potential million as in the original example. $1000 is a tolerable amount to risk missing out on.