If the machine predicts that you will take both Boxes A and B, Box B will be empty. But if the machine predicts that you will take Box B only, then Box B will contain $1,000,000,000. The machine has already done it’s prediction and the contents of box B has already been set. Which box/boxes do you take?
To reiterate, you choices are:
-Box A and B
-Box B only
(“Box A only” is not an option because no one is that stupid lol)
Please explain your reasoning.
My answer is:
spoiler
I mean I’d choose Box B only, I’d just gamble on the machine being right. If the machine is wrong, I’ll break that thing.
This is based on Newcomb’s Paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb’s_paradox), but I increased the money to make it more interesting.
It’s much easier if you reframe the problem:
Someone says they’ve built a machine that can perfectly predict what you will do. Do you believe them?
If so, take one box.
If not, take both boxes.
But even if you don’t believe them, it’s got a 50% chance on a coin toss.
Regardless of whether the machine is right, if you don’t believe it can perfectly predict what you’ll do then taking both boxes is always better than just one.
Yeah, at least you’ll have an extra box to keep your stuff in.