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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • Others have mentioned geosynchronous satellites as examples that can just sit in one place, but they can only do so over the equator—not directly over North America as per your question. (They would still be visible from North America, bu they would appear to the south instead of directly overhead.) Geosynchronous orbits can be inclined relative to the earth’s axis, in which case they could pass directly over North America; but they would have to spend an equal amount of time over the southern hemisphere (without moving significantly east or west).




  • The assumption that, for any historical event, we have access to enough information to definitively identify the cause. This manifests in several forms:

    • In criminal trials, we assume that the most likely suspect is definitely guilty. If there are nine possible suspects, and it’s shown that one is twice as likely as the others to have committed the crime, that’s considered proof of guilt—even though it’s still four times as likely to have been one of the other eight.

    • In conspiracy theories, if there’s a similar situation where there are nine possible causes for a historical event, an official investigation may declare one of them the most likely—which can be true in spite of the fact that it’s still probably wrong. But conspiracy theorists, instead of accepting that that’s the best that can be done, take the improbability of the investigation’s conclusion as proof that the real cause was covered up.

    • In historical study, the assumption that theories proven to be probable can be treated as proven true. A new theory might rely on two other theories, each of which is twice as likely to be true than false and is accepted as the academic consensus. But if they’re independent, the odds that at least one of them is wrong is better than even (56%).