• 0 Posts
  • 5 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 11th, 2023

help-circle

  • Not an expert, just relaying what I read elsewhere. TLDR: “nothing goes in, nothing goes out between you two” is about right, but it’s not entirely symmetrical.

    Instance A defederates from instance B. This means that (let instance C be a neutral third party that is federated with both A and B):

    • no posts or comments by users from B anywhere on lemmy are visible to users from A
    • existing posts and comments in communities on A are still visible to users from B
    • new posts and comments by users from A and C in communities on A are not visible to users from B
    • new comments by users from B to existing posts in communities on A are not visible to users from C
    • new and existing posts and comments by users from A in communities on C are still visible to users from B



  • I think the major unanswered question is how reliable do we think the machine is? 50%? 100%? I think the most interesting scenario is one where we are convinced that the machine actually predicts the future and always predicts correctly, so I’ll continue with that assumption in mind.

    From one point of view, we have no reason not to take both boxes, since we can’t alter the machine’s prediction now, it’s already happened. I think however that this undermines my premise. Choosing both boxes only makes sense if we don’t actually believe the machine predicts the future.

    One would be tempted to say "alright, then I will choose only box B, as the machine will have predicted that and I will get lots of money. If I were to choose both boxes, the machine would have predicted that too, and I would get much less money.

    My argument is that both answers are wrong in a sneaky way: assuming an actual perfect predictor, my answer is box B only. However, the important part here is that this will not be, in fact, a choice. The result was already determined ahead of time, so I really only had that one option.